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摩根斯坦利最新研究报告：全球芯片观察（2004年7月）- -

                                      

2004年7月，摩根斯坦利最新研究报告：全球芯片观察（Morgan Stanley Global Chipwatch - July 2004 ），全文43页。

主要结论如下：

Negative preannouncements remained limited in Q2
Although near-term order momentum in many parts of the
semiconductor industry slowed in May and June, the number of
negative preannouncements remained low, as most semiconductor
companies entered Q2 with a solid backlog.

But near-term uncertainties have increased
Due to the slowdown in order momentum, near-term uncertainty and earnings volatility is likely to increase for many companies.
However, we believe most of the bellwether semiconductor
companies will meet Q2 expectations and provide Q3 guidance that will prevent a meaningful change in consensus estimates.

Most management teams will likely provide conservative Q3 outlooks
When the back-end loaded nature of Q3 is combined with the recent weakness in numerous economic and consumer oriented data points, we expect most management teams to adopt a conservative outlook for their Q3 guidance.

But we believe the semiconductor cycle remains intact
Despite the recent order weakness and concerns about end market demand, we believe that capacity utilization rates will remain high and the overall semiconductor industry will maintain pricing power at least through the end of this year. When combined with low inventories and seasonally stronger end market demand, negative earnings surprises should remain at a low level.

Semiconductor stocks’ poor price performance has created attractive valuations
YTD through July 9, the MSCI world semiconductor and semiconductor capital equipment index has declined 15.6% versus declines of 0.3% and 3.4% in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, respectively. Provided our 2005 EPS estimates remain intact (and we expect them to), then the recent sell-off has left most semiconductor stocks with attractive valuations.

Global Industry Views on page 9
Our favorite global stock ideas include Intel and Samsung
Electronics.

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- 作者： fangxd 访问统计：　2004年08月6日, 星期五 22:26 加入博采